here were my final predictions for who will win the oscar (in parentheses, i put who i think deserves to win)

   - - - - -
   CATEGORY: ACADEMY'S CHOICE (MY CHOICE)
   - - - - -

x  best picture: Brokeback Mountain (A History of Violence - NOT EVEN NOMINATED!)
Crash WINS UPSET BID DUE TO POLITICS!  Here is a movie that did not win a single Golden Globe and 
wasn't even nominated for Best Picture, out of 10 possible nominations.  
IT'S THE SAME REASON Paradise Now LOST TO Tsotsi: ACADEMY DECIDES TO PLAY IT SAFE 
RATHER THAN STOMACH THE BURDEN THAT COMES WITH THE CONTROVERSY OF BISEXUAL COWBOYS AND PALESTINIAN SUICIDE BOMBERS
To quote my screenwriter friend Ben Cohen, "I do wish that [The Academy] would go back and watch Do the Right Thing, 
Grand Canyon, Short Cuts, Magnolia, Traffic, and Amores Perros and still tell me Crash is revolutionary"

/  director: Ang Lee (Ang Lee), rationale: sure the academy loves to award actors-turned-directors so 
George Clooney could win, but they don't always award their own (Clint Eastwood for Mystic River in 2003, 
Robert Redford for Quiz Show in 1994, etc.).  plus there is just way too much positive buzz 
about Brokeback, which is the clear favorite.
 
/  actor: Philip Seymour Hoffman (Philip Seymour Hoffman)
/  actress: Reese Witherspoon (Felicity Huffman)
/  supp actor: George Clooney (Paul Giamatti)
/  supp actress: Rachel Weisz (Michelle Williams)

/  best orig scrnply: Crash (The Squid and the Whale)
/  best adap scrnply: Brokeback Mountain (Munich)

/  foreign: Tsotsi (Paradise Now) - changed my prediction on 12:43 PM PST, 03/05/06 from Paradise Now to Tsotsi, 
since too much controversy around Paradise Now, i.e. Israelis pressured Academy to drop the story that humanizes 
Palestinian suicide bombers.  Should have taken the chance and applied the same reasoning to Brokeback Mountain.
/  animated: Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit (Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit)
/  documentary: March of the Penguins (March of the Penguins)

SUMMARY OF RESULTS: 10/11 = 91% guessed correctly, up from 81.8% last year 

CONCLUSION: There is always a surprise winner.

KEY: "/" - got right, "x" - got wrong

PREVIOUS YEARS' PREDICTIONS: 2004 | 2003 | 2002 | Top 10 Lists | Home